Are English sides underdogs at the business end of Europe?

Similar to how it’s a good idea to snap wedding pictures before the night’s festivities, if you’re an Englishman, it might be worthwhile to save a picture of the Champions Cup final 16 in its shiny current state before things start to go south.

With the present trajectory of cross-Channel travel, it is a sobering sight to see six Premiership clubs remaining in the running as opposed to five French clubs.

Despite all the discussion about the talent drain from England, it seems clear that the Premiership is still quite powerful.

Though commendable for the six survivors, it is a healthy start to the situation and one that is unlikely to endure.

There has never been a midway winner in a race, and historical evidence suggests that English clubs struggle to keep up towards the end of European club rugby’s epic yearly journey.

France and Ireland have produced the last six tournament finals, while the last three winners have come from the Top 14.

Regarding the Champions Cup, England is ranked third on the list.

The Premiership clubs’ pool stage performances this season have given the impression of a resurgence. Notable victories have been achieved by Exeter, Leicester, and Harlequins in France.

Thus far, the English team leads the Premiership head-to-head 9–6 against the Top 14.

That is, however, when it truly counts during knockout time.

In the past, during this stage of the season, teams like Leicester, Wasps, or Saracens would relentlessly push their size 12s around Europe.

These were teams that possessed the manpower and resources necessary to prevail in the big games. In Europe, they were the ones who embodied the aura.

You could make a case for Saracens, during the Last Dance season, for some of their departing A-list players, but it would be more grounded in sentimentality than in the small grey cells’ rational thinking.

Like the national team, that feeling of English invincibility has worn off now.

They are no longer in front of the game, but they are still in it.

Since emerging from its Six Nations cocoon, the Premiership has been a lot of fun, even though the results have been as unpredictable as a sporran during a hurricane.

It has been a stock car race of a fortnight, with the tries coming easily and the games captivating, but it has been difficult to choose a team from the throng to defeat the best in Europe.

You could make a case for Saracens, during the Last Dance season, for some of their departing A-list players, but it would be more grounded in sentimentality than in the small grey cells’ rational thinking.

Four years ago, Exeter became the last English team to win the Champions Cup.

Rob Baxter, the director of rugby then and now, acknowledges that the Chiefs and the rest of the Premiership have an uphill battle to win the Champions Cup this season. The Chiefs are still competing in this year’s tournament and will play Bath in the last 16, which ensures one English team a spot in the quarterfinals.

Over the course of a season-long competition, the financial imbalance with the Top 14 makes it an uneven contest.

Because of the difficulties the Premiership has faced in the last two or three years due to the reduction in the salary ceiling and the Covid repayments, Baxter believes that the Top 14 is in a little different cycle when it comes to European success than the Premiership.

“I’m positive we’ll put on an incredible show if we defeat Bath and go on to play whoever in the next round.” We’ll see if we would have enough to see things through.

“The benefit French clubs have, and this also holds true for the provinces of Ireland, is that the extra funding helps with depth as well as quality.

“I questioned whether this would determine where we ended up later on when Premiership clubs were starting the season with a lot of success in Europe. The crucial factor would be our collective performance in the quarterfinals and final 16, as well as the number of healthy players we have in comparison to some of the other teams.

Success comes last when the first concern is survival. Everything else comes into stark relief when you consider the depressing reality of three Premiership clubs going bankrupt.

“The effects of the injuries are beginning to show here. We have a front-line scrum-half out for the season, a couple front-line props and backs out, and a few minor but significant injuries to crucial players.

Success comes last when the first concern is survival. Everything else comes into stark relief when you consider the depressing reality of three Premiership clubs going bankrupt.

Ironically, the collapse strengthened a few of the English clubs that were still standing. The addition of Alfie Barbeary, Ted Hill, and Ollie Lawrence was good for Bath.

They are still unable to assert, however, that they possess a vertical seam of riches comparable to Toulouse or Leinster.

Neither can Leicester, Harlequins, or Northampton—despite the fact that they are at the top of the Premiership table.

Exeter, on the other hand, is having to rebuild with a new crop after losing the backbone of their Champions Cup-winning team to French rugby in the Simmonds brothers and Jack Nowell.

With his farmer’s practicality, Baxter is happy to reseed and let it grow again, although more fertiliser is required to get it to the level of European champions.

“We’re not in the same financial position as we were before Covid to assemble a team with the calibre and depth we did,” Baxter remarked.

However, the salary cap will increase again, so things will change then.

A Premiership club will have to swim against the current going forward if they are to succeed in Europe.

It is our goal that we can return to that degree.

According to Baxter, the current state of the financial imbalance is cyclical and will resolve itself when the problems facing the English game are resolved.

That might not be so simple, though. Even with three less Premiership clubs to distribute the life-sustaining broadcast revenue around, the new domestic TV agreement with TNT is still a small fry compared to its French counterpart.

A Premiership club will have to swim against the current going forward if they are to succeed in Europe.

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